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Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol has grown sharply, with fresh data showing that the country sourced 69 percent of its petrol needs from foreign suppliers in June 2025. Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) revealed that 1.478 billion litres of petrol were consumed during the month. Out of this, only 455 million litres were refined locally, while 1.023 billion litres came from imports.
This increase comes despite the commencement of supplies from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery earlier in the year. The refinery, with a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, was expected to significantly cut Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel. However, industry observers note that the market is still heavily tilted toward imports, with some marketers favouring foreign petrol due to pricing structures, legacy contracts, and possibly quicker delivery timelines.
The NMDPRA’s supply breakdown, presented to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), showed that total petrol supply in June was 16.4 percent lower than the 1.768 billion litres recorded in May. On a daily basis, Nigerians consumed an average of 49.277 million litres in June. Of this, imported petrol accounted for 34.104 million litres per day, while locally refined fuel contributed just 15.172 million litres.
The figures reflect a broader trend that has persisted for months. Between May and June, about 71.38 percent of all petrol supplied to the Nigerian market was imported, while domestic refineries contributed only 28.62 percent. This is despite major investments in refining capacity, including the multi-billion-dollar Dangote project and ongoing rehabilitation of state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.
Nigeria, as Africa’s top crude oil producer, has long sought to boost domestic refining in order to conserve foreign exchange reserves and improve energy security. The Dangote Refinery alone cost about $20 billion to build and was widely promoted as a solution to the country’s chronic import dependence. But market realities appear to be slowing progress.
Industry analysts point to several challenges. Existing import contracts, often negotiated years ahead, still dominate supply arrangements. Import networks also benefit from established distribution channels, making it difficult for new local supply to fully compete. Additionally, there have been reports of offshore fuel blending and questionable fuel quality entering the Nigerian market, creating concerns about consumer safety and regulatory oversight.
Aliko Dangote, owner of the Dangote Refinery, has publicly accused some players in the oil market of undermining local refining through aggressive price undercutting and fuel dumping. According to him, this behaviour not only affects refinery economics but also threatens the country’s goal of achieving self-sufficiency in petrol production.
The economic implications are significant. Higher fuel imports increase demand for foreign currency, putting pressure on Nigeria’s already stretched forex reserves. This, in turn, can weaken the naira and drive up the cost of imported goods. Local refineries also struggle to reach optimal production when market share is dominated by cheaper imports.
Despite these challenges, there are signs of potential change. The Dangote Refinery has announced a reduction in its ex-depot price of petrol, from N850 to N820 per litre, in an effort to make local supply more competitive. The refinery also plans to roll out compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks from August 15, 2025, to distribute fuel more efficiently across the country.
Energy experts believe that Nigeria’s fuel import dependence can be reduced if government policy clearly prioritises local supply, enforces quality control standards, and discourages unfair competition from importers. Such measures would help conserve foreign exchange, support refinery investments, and improve national energy security. For now, however, the latest data underscores a pressing reality—Nigeria is still heavily dependent on imported petrol, with nearly seven out of every ten litres consumed in June coming from abroad.
