- The president was on the money with many of his figures, including that inflation hit a three-year low in August 2025, external reserves were at their highest levels since 2019 and that N330 billion was disbursed to 8 million households under the National Social Investment Programme.
- However, some claims were misleading, such as comparing quarterly GDP-growth with annual figures and equating non-oil exports with all non-crude exports.
- Tinubu’s main incorrect claim was that his administration cut Nigeria’s revenue-to-debt service ratio from 97% to below 50%. We also couldn’t find evidence for his claim that 153,000 workers had benefited from a N30 billion loan scheme.
Nigeria celebrated 65 years of independence from colonial rule on 1 October 2025.
In a national address, president Bola Tinubu reflected on progress in the country.
“In the last two years of our administration, we have achieved 12 remarkable economic milestones as a result of the implementation of our sound fiscal and monetary policies,” he said.
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He went on to present a series of claims and statistics outlining how his government had improved Nigeria’s economy since he was sworn in in May 2023.
We reviewed the economic claims Tinubu made but excluded those that could not be independently verified.
Here are the 18 claims we checked.
A country’s gross domestic product, or GDP, is the total value of all goods and services it produces in a year. GDP growth shows how much that output increases, usually by year or quarter.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released a report shortly before Independence Day, showing that Nigeria’s real GDP, which accounts for inflation, grew by 4.23% in the second quarter of 2025.
Tinubu was correct to say this was the fastest growth rate in four years. The last time it was higher was in 2021, when GDP grew by 5.01% in the second quarter.
Real GDP growth did not rise above 4% again until the second quarter of 2025. – Allwell Okpi
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Nigeria’s real GDP growth at 3.4% for the full year 2025.
Annual GDP growth compares a country’s total output for the year with that of the previous year. It differs from quarterly growth, which compares output in one quarter with the same period the year before.
It is therefore misleading to compare a quarterly GDP growth rate with a yearly projection. – Allwell Okpi
Inflation shows how much prices for goods and services have increased over time, usually yearly. It is measured using the consumer price index or CPI, which tracks changes in the cost of household items.
The latest CPI report from the NBS shows that headline inflation was 20.12% in August 2025. The NBS releases this data monthly.
The last time inflation was below 20% was in July 2022 (19.64%), before rising to 20.52% the following month.
Inflation then climbed steadily to 34.8% in December 2024, before falling sharply to 24.48% in January 2025 after the NBS rebased the CPI, changing the base year from 2009 to 2024, and updating its methodology.
The 20.12% inflation rate in August 2025 is therefore the lowest in just over three years, as Tinubu said. – Allwell Okpi
Tinubu claimed his administration had reduced Nigeria’s revenue-to-debt service ratio from 97% to below 50%, though he did not specify the period referenced.
However, considering that he was referring to his time in office, we worked with the period from May 2023 to September 2025.
According to the Budget Office of the Federation, federal revenue in the second quarter of 2023 was N2.5 trillion, while N1.6 trillion was spent on debt servicing, a ratio of 64.4%.
For the first half of 2023, revenue totalled N4.12 trillion and debt servicing N3.58 trillion, giving a ratio of 86.9%.
Both figures are well below 97%, so the ratio could not have been that high when Tinubu took office. – Allwell Okpi
When the president delivered his speech on 1 October 2025, the budget office was about a year behind in releasing its quarterly budget implementation reports.
The latest available report covered the third quarter of 2024, containing data from January to September.
One-year delay flouts Nigeria’s budget transparency law
The budget office’s failure to publish a quarterly budget implementation report for nearly a year violates the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2007.
Under Section 30 of the law, the federal ministry of finance, through the budget office, must monitor how the national budget is implemented and publish a report within 30 days of each quarter.
This means the report for the second quarter of 2025 should have been released by 30 August, but it was not.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the Tinubu administration earned N14.55 trillion in revenue and spent N8.94 trillion on debt service. This is a debt service-to-revenue ratio of 61.4%.
The ratio fluctuated during the year, as shown in the table below.
– Allwell Okpi
Foreign exchange reserves are assets held by a central bank in foreign currencies. They play a key role in maintaining a country’s currency value and economic stability.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that the country’s gross external reserve stood at $42.3 billion on 29 September 2025.
Nigeria’s reserves first crossed the $42 billion mark on 19 September. The last time reserves were this high was in September 2019, at $42 billion, making the claim accurate.
Higher figures have been reported, including $64.85 billion in 2008. – Allwell Okpi
The tax-to-GDP ratio measures how much tax revenue a government collects compared to the size of its economy.
The NBS last reported Nigeria’s ratio at 10.86% in 2021. Since then, no updated official data has been published.
In 2024, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) announced plans to achieve an 18% tax-to-GDP ratio by 2026, up from the 2021 level.
Axel Schimmelpfennig, the IMF’s mission chief for Nigeria, put the ratio at 9.4% in 2023.
Schimmelpfennig told Africa Check that his figure was drawn from the IMF’s Article IV Staff Report for Nigeria, based on data provided by the Nigerian authorities. He added that the recent GDP rebasing had affected all ratios expressed as a percentage of GDP going forward.
The only publicly available data on tax revenue is from FIRS, which reported N21.7 trillion in collections for 2024, above its target. The data covers federal taxes.
A true tax-to-GDP ratio should reflect all tax revenues across federal, state and local governments, measured against nominal GDP.
Because no recent comprehensive data is available, Tinubu’s claim cannot be independently verified. – Muktar Balogun
A trade surplus occurs when a country exports more goods and services than it imports over a given period.
According to the NBS, Nigeria recorded consistent trade surpluses from the first quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025:
The surpluses were largely driven by crude oil, which consistently made up the biggest share of total exports.
For example, in the second quarter of 2025, crude oil exports were valued at N11.96 trillion, or 52.6% of total exports, while non-crude exports totalled N10.78 trillion (47.4%).
In the first quarter of 2025, crude oil, valued at N12.9 trillion, made up 62.89% of total exports.
– Muktar Balogun
Data from the NBS confirms that Nigeria’s trade surplus rose by 44.3% in the second quarter of 2025, reaching N7.46 trillion, up from N5.17 trillion in the previous quarter.
This marks a sharp rise compared to previous years. In the second quarter of 2022, the trade surplus was N1.97 trillion, dropping slightly to N1.29 trillion in the same quarter of 2023.
However, the second quarter of 2024 saw a significant jump, with a surplus of N6.95 trillion due to a 190.9% surge in crude oil exports, which rose from N5 trillion in the second quarter of 2023 to N14.5 trillion.
Other export categories, including refined oil products, agricultural goods, raw materials and manufactured goods, also saw increases of over 100% year-on-year. – Muktar Balogun
Nigeria’s trade balance supports this claim. In 2022, surpluses were N1.20 trillion, N1.97 trillion, N269.34 billion and N996.78 billion across the four quarters.
In 2023, surpluses were N927.16 billion, N1.29 trillion and N1.88 trillion in the first three quarters, before giving way to a fourth quarter trade deficit of N1.41 trillion.
In 2024, surpluses rose sharply to N6.52 trillion, N6.95 trillion, N5.81 trillion and N3.42 trillion.
The first quarter of 2025 recorded a N5.17 trillion surplus, before a N7.46 trillion surplus in the second quarter, the largest in roughly three years.
– Muktar Balogun
In the second quarter of 2025, Nigeria’s manufactured goods exports were valued at N803.8 billion, up 67.2% from N480.8 billion in the second quarter of 2024.
Compared to the first quarter of 2025 (N294.4 billion), this represents a 173% increase, confirming the president’s claim. –Muktar Balogun
The NBS categorises exports into crude oil, non-crude oil and non-oil categories.
According to its Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics (Q2 2025) report, crude oil was Nigeria’s major exported commodity at N11.97 trillion, or 52.6% of total exports.
The value of non-crude oil exports was N10.78 trillion, or 47.4% of the total.
Exports of non-oil products, which fall under the non-crude oil exports, were worth N3.04 trillion (13.4%).
In his speech, Tinubu referred to “non-oil exports” as 48%, but that figure actually represents non-crude oil exports, which still include refined petroleum and other oil related products.
His statement, therefore, gives a misleading impression that non-oil sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and solid minerals are nearly as dominant as oil in Nigeria’s export mix. – Muktar Balogun
Nigeria relies heavily on oil for foreign exchange and government revenue.
Data from the central bank shows that crude oil production averaged just over 1 million barrels of oil per day in May 2023, following a sharp decline to between 940,000 and 970,000 barrels in mid-2022.
Production has since improved. The central bank recorded 1.51 million barrels per day in July 2025, while the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported an average of 1.54 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensates in January.
Condensates are light hydrocarbons like propane and butane produced alongside crude oil.
Though the commission, which enforces oil and gas exploration and production laws, has not released data for February to September 2025, it reported a figure of 1.63 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensates in August.
We rate the claim as mostly correct. – Motunrayo Joel
President Tinubu claimed that N330 billion has been disbursed under Nigeria’s National Social Investment Programme (NSIP).
The NSIP, launched in 2016 under then president Muhammadu Buhari, has four components:
- N-Power, to help young people
- A school feeding initiative
- A cash transfer scheme for the poor and vulnerable
- A micro-lending programme
The programme is overseen by the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development.
Publicly available data, including ministry updates from September 2025, shows that at least N330 billion has been disbursed, reaching 8.1 million households.
The National Cash Transfer Office reported that over 70 million individuals and 19 million households are registered for the conditional cash transfer.
‘Independent oversight needed for fair disbursement’
Benedict Akanegbu, professor of economics at Nile University, told Africa Check that independent oversight was essential to ensure funds were properly disbursed.
“What can be agreed on is that such an amount has been proposed for the programme. But even if it was disbursed, did it truly reach those in need? While the president or relevant authorities may have approved and recorded the disbursement in official data, there is no certainty that the funds reached the intended beneficiaries,” Akanegbu said. – Motunrayo Joel
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Tinubu said that coal mining rebounded strongly, ranking among Nigeria’s fastest-growing sectors.
Nigeria has abundant coal deposits, with the city of Enugu in the southeast even nicknamed the “Coal City”.
Once a key revenue source before the oil boom and the civil war of 1967 to 1970, coal remains significant in Nigeria’s energy and industrial landscape
According to the NBS, the coal mining sector fell by 22.28% in the first quarter of 2025, and then grew 57.53% in the second quarter, making it the fastest growing sector in that quarter.
It was followed by quarrying and other minerals at 45.86% growth, and rail transport and pipelines at 43.08%. – Motunrayo Joel
Tinubu said his administration was expanding transport infrastructure, including rail, roads, airports and seaports.
He further claimed that rail transport grew by over 40% and water transport by over 27%.
According to the NBS, rail transport grew by 43.8% in the second quarter of 2025, and water by 27.9%.
In the first quarter of 2025, rail grew by 28.95% and water by 3.46%. – Motunrayo Joel
Tinubu said Nigeria’s stock market was experiencing an unprecedented boom.
The all-share index he referred to tracks the overall market performance of all listed equities on the Nigerian exchange (NGX).
Each “point” represents one naira, reflecting movement in the market’s total value.
According to NGX data, Nigeria’s all-share index stood above 13,000 points in May 2003, not 55,000 as the president claimed. After a brief period of decline, it rose to more than 64,000 points by March 2008.
Before Tinubu took office on 29 May 2023, the index was above 55,000 points, which is likely what he meant in the claim.
It slipped to just over 52,000 points later in the year but rose sharply, reaching more than 142,000 points by 30 September 2025, as the president correctly claimed.
But by misstating the 2003 figure, he did miss an opportunity to claim even greater gains. – Motunrayo Joel
Credit Corporation (Credicorp) is a federal government-backed development finance institution created to expand access to consumer credit for Nigerian workers.
In June 2025, Credicorp reported disbursing loans to 100,000 Nigerians within six months of receiving its seed funding. The following month, it distributed 50 tricycles to young people in Ikorodu, Lagos state.
According to its official website, 111,000 Nigerians currently have access to its credit scheme, with over N19.5 billion disbursed.
While some reports mention a N20 billion loan programme launched in 2024 to buy locally assembled vehicles and tricycles, we could not find verifiable data confirming the N30 billion figure or 153,000 beneficiaries cited by the president.
Africa Check also reached out to Credicorp for the relevant figures and will update this report with their response. Until then, we rate the claim unproven. – Precious Ewuji
