The Indian Ocean island of Madagascar has once again found itself at a familiar crossroads — a fallen president, jubilant protesters, and young military men promising a “new beginning.” The cycle has become eerily predictable: political euphoria followed by disillusionment, a coup cloaked in patriotism, and eventually, the slow decay of yet another regime.
This time, the storm was led by the country’s restless Generation Z — the children of economic despair and digital awareness. Their uprising was not born overnight. It has been simmering for years under chronic unemployment, corruption, and the widening gap between a political elite and the struggling youth. In their eyes, the president had come to embody a stale system — one that enriched a few while leaving the majority behind. Social media became their battleground, their slogans viral, their anger contagious. When the protests reached their peak, the military stepped in, and a young officer, once seen among the demonstrators, suddenly found himself in the presidential palace.
Yet, this is not new territory for Madagascar. The island’s history reads like a tragic loop of revolutions that eat their own. Marc Ravalomanana was ousted by Andry Rajoelina — the former DJ who promised a youthful reset. Today, Rajoelina himself has been swept aside in the same fashion, toppled by another generation that believed change could only come from the streets and the barracks. The irony is profound: those who rose to power through popular revolt now fall to the very same forces.
Why does peace remain so elusive in Madagascar? Perhaps because true reform has never followed these political upheavals. Each new government claims to be different, but the underlying structures — patronage, weak institutions, and economic inequality — remain intact. The young military leader now in charge faces a Herculean task: rebuilding trust, stabilizing the economy, and convincing both the people and the world that his rule is not merely another interlude before the next uprising.
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But is he up to the job? Or is he merely a symbol — a product of circumstance rather than conviction? His sudden rise, fueled by protest and public anger, may have given him legitimacy in the streets, but not necessarily the experience or vision to govern. The same Generation Z that carried him to power is impatient and unpredictable. If he fails to deliver tangible change quickly — jobs, fairness, and accountability — they may turn against him just as swiftly as they embraced him.
Internationally, the condemnation has been swift. The United Nations has denounced the takeover, and the African Union has suspended Madagascar — again. But such measures have become almost ceremonial. When Rajoelina seized power in 2009, both the UN and AU took similar steps, only for France and several European states to quietly recognize his government, undermining the entire process. Will history repeat itself? Probably. And if it does, the question must be asked: what legitimacy remains for the African Union, an institution that many young Africans see as outdated, bureaucratic, and disconnected from the realities on the ground?
Across the continent, a new phenomenon is emerging — the so-called “good coups.” In an era where leaders in their 80s and 90s cling to power through sham elections and constitutional manipulation, some Africans, especially the youth, see military takeovers as a desperate form of justice. When a 91-year-old in Cameroon can “win” an election after four decades of corruption and repression, one cannot entirely blame a generation that begins to equate stability with stagnation and revolt with renewal.
Madagascar’s current drama is therefore more than a national crisis — it is a continental symptom. A young population that has lost faith in democratic promises is seeking salvation in uniforms rather than ballots. But revolutions without reform are destined to repeat themselves.
Unless Madagascar breaks its pattern — building strong institutions instead of strongmen — the faces in power will change, but the story will not. The new president may have captured the moment, but whether he can capture the future depends on his ability to do what none before him have managed: turn protest into progress, and rebellion into rebuilding.
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Otherwise, it is only a matter of time before the next uprising begins — this time against him.
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Daniel Makokera is a renowed media personality who has worked as journalist, television anchor, producer and conference presenter for over 20 years. Throughout his career as presenter and anchor, he has travelled widely across the continent and held exclusive interviews with some of Africa’s most illustrious leaders. These include former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, former South African presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki, former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and presidents Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He currently is the CEO of Pamuzinda Productions based in South Africa.
