With Arsenal clear and rivals stumbling, is the Premier League title race over? | Premier League

They can learn from experience

All the signs point to it finally being Arsenal’s season. But given that they have spent almost 800 days top of the table since last being champions in 2004, nothing will be taken for granted at this stage. After an outlay of more than £250m in the summer, Mikel Arteta has a formidable squad that has been able to cope with injuries to important players such as Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard – a problem that derailed them in three successive runner-up finishes.

There is also a new steely determination epitomised by their meagre defence, which has conceded three goals in 13 games in all competitions and only one from open play. A group that has learned and grown from its experiences is highly motivated to go one better, starting with their manager. The question is whether Liverpool or Manchester City can recover to sustain a challenge that could make Arsenal nervous, especially if Viktor Gyökeres continues to struggle for goals. They have managed only five from open play and are heavily reliant on set pieces, although stopping Gabriel Magalhães and co is easier said than done. Ed Aarons

The spine of the team is strong

It’s probably too soon to anoint Arsenal as champions but their form makes ominous reading for the rest of the crowd, especially their defensive record. Gyökeres, Eberechi Eze and Martín Zubimendi have strengthened Mikel Arteta’s side but solid foundations are the significant pieces of the puzzle. For a while now William Saliba and Gabriel have ensured the soft centre is no more. Arteta’s old boss, Pep Guardiola, is surely his biggest rival for the title from here, with City capable of going on a similar run. Erling Haaland’s prolific form – he is the Premier League’s leading scorer with 11 and has outscored eight teams – means City simply cannot be discounted. After defeat at Aston Villa on Sunday, Guardiola insisted he was far from reaching for the panic button when asked about the gap to the summit, clearly enthused by elements of his side’s performance. On another day City could have won and only three points would separate the sides. Ben Fisher

Squad depth will be tested

Of course the race is not over. Aside from the obvious – the clocks have just gone back and all the teams have 87 points left to play for – reservations over Arsenal’s ability to go the distance are well founded. In their favour, the league leaders are more experienced and resolute this season with greater strength in depth than their rivals. But Arteta’s side have a reputation as nearly men for a reason, their injury record is poor and whether they can handle the pressure of leading from the front is unknown. There is also a sense that Arsenal have edged clear thanks to the inconsistency of the competition rather than outstanding form.

Inconsistency leads us on to City and Liverpool, teams in transition (necessary or otherwise) and stuttering as a consequence, but whose talent is unquestionable. Guardiola’s and Arne Slot’s ability to deliver a Premier League title is proven. City are re-emerging but only a Haaland injury away from trouble. Liverpool’s title defence is worse than their last one after nine games (20 points in 2020-21 compared with 15 now) but, daft as it sounds, they are capable of turning things around providing Slot discovers his best XI and big-money signings finally make an impact. But maybe Bournemouth under the brilliant Andoni Iraola will continue to disrupt the usual suspects? Andy Hunter

Belief will be vital

Arsenal’s defence is the Ebenezer Scrooge of the Premier League and the telling bellwether of why Arteta’s team may well be crowned champions. Liverpool’s fourth consecutive league defeat on Saturday, at Brentford, leaves them seven points behind the Gunners and in a freefall a seemingly flailing Slot is struggling to arrest. Of the other traditional contenders City also lost at the weekend as Guardiola continues to rue the anterior cruciate ligament injury Rodri sustained last September. Rodri was missing at Villa with a hurt hamstring, the latest problem hampering his attempt to regain consistent fitness, and it was notable that Guardiola eschewed the supposed deputy, Nico González, for Tijjani Reijnders in the XI, then replaced the latter for the former on 66 minutes: a sure sign the manager remains unsure who best fills the Rodri role when the Spanish midfielder is absent.

Chelsea, the last team before City or Liverpool to win the league (in 2016-17), also went down – last gasp at home against Sunderland – and their eight-point deficit to Arsenal can be cast as a chasm. Of the rest, Manchester United, Sunderland, Tottenham and Bournemouth are unlikely candidates for obvious reasons. With Areta’s side also being the division’s joint second highest scorers with 16, their only glass half empty scenario is the question of mental courage. In the three second-place finishes of the past three seasons can be found a question of hard nosed belief. The glaring example came in 2022-23 when, on 1 April, they held an eight-point advantage over City (who had a game in hand) before capitulating, taking only three points from the next available 12 and ending five points behind Guardiola’s champions. Also, we are only nine matches in. Jamie Jackson

Difficult period still to come

Is the title race done? Not quite yet. The margin for error for the chasing pack is almost gone but Arsenal have some awkward games before Christmas. Come through those unscathed and they will appear unstoppable. A slip or two will give others hope. But Arsenal look so strong. A defence to rival Chelsea’s 2004-05 vintage ensures calm. Arsenal have faced one shot on target in their past three games: absurd. Equally, they are 17th for goals from open play. Ugly wins could easily turn into frustrating draws.

Others lack that durability. Chelsea are too up and down. Tottenham are poor at home and lack individual quality. Liverpool are in a top-four fight now. City have Haaland but are in transition. It’s not being patronising to say that Bournemouth simply have a great chance of Champions League qualification. It leaves us in the strange position of wondering whether Manchester United are quietly dangerous. Their underlying numbers are good and they should benefit from no European football. United, though? Are we really relying on United? It’s basically there for Arsenal. They may get nervous but only if there is pressure on their lead. Still, let’s see where they are after they go to Villa Park on 6 December. Jacob Steinberg

The season has barely begun

The clocks have just gone back, we’re not quite out of October and there are still an awful lot of hard yards to be covered. Arsenal have started impressively but they don’t look invincible. Tottenham, City and Liverpool are only five, six and seven points back respectively. At this stage of a campaign those sorts of gaps can easily be closed. And let’s not forget Bournemouth. Only four points off the top, lacking European distractions and in possession of an outstanding manager, they have surely earned the right to dream?

Arteta will know better than to indulge in any title fantasies as he approaches a potentially season defining November fixture list featuring league trips to Burnley, Sunderland – who have only five fewer points – and Chelsea plus a home derby with Tottenham. Given that, in between, there are Champions League dates with Slavia Prague and Bayern Munich, the road ahead looks hazardous. Moreover, every team ebb and flow to some extent over 38 league games. Some specifically tailor pre-season training to try to ensure strong run-ins and accept slightly slow starts as an inevitable side effect. At some point Alexander Isak will surely start scoring again; Liverpool’s title defence is not quite over. Do not write City off either. Louise Taylor

Rivals lack consistency

No title race is ever done before the quarter-way point, but Arsenal are in an extremely strong position. Finishing second three times in a row has, perhaps unfairly, created a now-or-never dynamic, and for now that seem to be responding to that with efficiency and ruthlessness. Their defensive solidity means that, even if they don’t play well, they only have to score once to win and their exceptional ability from dead balls makes that more likely than not. Vitally, they can win games in two different ways. Their squad looks the most coherent in the division, with multiple players in most positions; they’ve opened up a four-point gap despite being without Ødegaard, Havertz and Noni Madueke.

But it’s not just that Arsenal look very good; it’s that it’s very hard to see who could put together a consistent enough run to overhaul them. Liverpool, as Slot keeps admitting, have been worked out; City are also trying to accommodate a number of new players and seem overreliant on Haaland; and Chelsea are blunt without Cole Palmer and look short at the back. Under pressure, there’s a chance any leader can crumble; but nobody looks capable of applying that pressure. Jonathan Wilson